{"ok":true,"nota":{"id":"d48b5e34f29b53bf","slug":"un-modelo-matematico-predijo-que-tan-bien-funcionara-la-vacuna-contra--d48b5e","titulo":"Un modelo matemático predijo qué tan bien funcionará la vacuna contra la gripe 2026-2027 en EE.UU.","resumen":"Investigadores usaron inteligencia artificial y secuencias genéticas de virus de gripe recolectados antes de cada temporada desde 2010. Con esos datos estimaron cuánto protegerá la vacuna contra las dos cepas principales de la temporada que viene.","fuente":"biorxiv","fuenteNombre":"bioRxiv · preprints","color":"#be2628","autor":"Wang, X. X., Wei, G.","url":"https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.22.760980v1?rss=1","imagen":"/hoy/portada/d48b5e34f29b53bf","tema":"salud","subtemas":["vacunas","gripe","influenza","inteligencia artificial","epidemiologia"],"entidades":["Estados Unidos","GISAID","H1N1","H3N2"],"formato":"dato","entretenimiento":false,"pubTs":"2026-10-26T00:00:00.000Z","indexTs":"2026-10-26T14:53:25.658Z","hash":"11491c53237b89892e27b23e4aaf35f1477b3dc94c6f6fdf4cb3ab6ceb894d9a","tsa":{"time":"Oct 26 14:54:01 2026 GMT","provider":"freetsa.org","sobre":"sello"},"stats":{"views":1,"likes":0,"clicks":0,"dwell":0},"tipo":"motor","registro":"hallazgo","porQueImporta":"La predicción calcula una protección de alrededor del 40% contra H1N1 y del 57% contra H3N2, cifras que se dan antes de que empiece el invierno. Para quien vive en el norte o tiene familiares de riesgo, saber de antemano qué tan confiable será la vacuna ayuda a decidir si vale la pena reforzar otras medidas de cuidado. Ojo: el estudio es un preprint sin revisión por pares y se basa solo en datos de Estados Unidos, así que la extrapolación a la Argentina requiere cautela.","quienFirma":"bioRxiv (preprint de investigadores de EE.UU.)","confianza":"preprint","consulta":{"pregunta":"¿Te vacunarías contra la gripe aunque la protección sea de alrededor del 40%?"}},"sello":{"hash":"11491c53237b89892e27b23e4aaf35f1477b3dc94c6f6fdf4cb3ab6ceb894d9a","sello":"ee5f0a9fc47451e55ee8221640c9019227fc736f902ac8a20176e0c818edc7a6","beacon":{"drand":{"cadena":"8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce","ronda":6586513,"aleatorio":"29252d64ae5579343d3b4c7195e7f25e20e7efda9f7d116c213bca78231653a8","tiempo":"2026-10-26T14:53:30.000Z"},"nist":{"cadena":2,"pulso":2000450,"salida":"EA784D98D5763B66F010C392D53318D62D88381D9414E0DC9F82D155C4472FF568C7FE97610A1FBF61DB527240CD9D1CBCAD8004F69E7935CD2BA4DAEF79B485","tiempo":"2026-10-26T14:53:00.000Z"},"noAntes":"2026-10-26T14:53:30.000Z"},"verificacion":{"drand":true,"nist":true},"tsa":{"time":"Oct 26 14:54:01 2026 GMT","provider":"freetsa.org","sobre":"sello"},"original":{"titulo":"Mathematical AI Predicts 40% and 57% Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Against H1N1 and H3N2, Respectively, for the 2026--2027 U.S. Season","descripcion":"Background: Clinical influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) has often been low over the past two decades, highlighting the need for preseason VE forecasting. Timely forecasts could help health authorities plan prevention strategies and allocate healthcare resources. However, preseason forecasting of clinical influenza VE remains relatively uncommon. Methods: We obtained hemagglutinin (HA) sequences from GISAID for U.S. specimens collected in August--September before each influenza season from 2010--2011 through 2024--2025. After quality screening, we compared each virus with the corresponding vaccine target strain for the same season and subtype or lineage using two mathematical distances base","pubDate":"2026-10-26","url":"https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.22.760980v1?rss=1"},"indexado":"2026-10-26T14:53:25.658Z"}}