{"ok":true,"nota":{"id":"4bf03249b6a458d7","slug":"un-modelo-nuevo-calcula-cuantas-gripes-evita-la-vacuna-en-mayores-de-6-4bf032","titulo":"Un modelo nuevo calcula cuántas gripes evita la vacuna en mayores de 65 años","resumen":"Actualizaron un modelo matemático para estimar cuántas enfermedades, internaciones y muertes por gripe evita la vacunación en adultos mayores. Lo probaron con datos sintéticos de cuatro temporadas y una efectividad supuesta del 37 %.","fuente":"medrxiv","fuenteNombre":"medRxiv · preprints","color":"#1f7a4d","autor":"Yoo, Y. M., Chard, A. N., Jara, J. H., Rolfes, M. A., Couto, P., Nogareda, F., Duca, L. M., Tempia, S.","url":"https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.23.26366241v1?rss=1","imagen":"/hoy/portada/4bf03249b6a458d7","tema":"salud","subtemas":["vacunación antigripal","modelos epidemiológicos","adultos mayores","influenza","salud pública"],"entidades":["Hemisferio Norte"],"formato":"dato","entretenimiento":false,"pubTs":"2026-10-26T00:00:00.000Z","indexTs":"2026-10-26T23:22:05.517Z","hash":"2e3f31cb90b39cdc4ae41789e809b6f07ff7bbaac3ea341d1bc5d281b1afc7dc","tsa":{"time":"Oct 26 23:22:58 2026 GMT","provider":"freetsa.org","sobre":"sello"},"stats":{"views":0,"likes":0,"clicks":0,"dwell":0},"tipo":"normal","registro":"hallazgo","porQueImporta":"Las decisiones sobre qué vacunas comprar y a quién dirigirlas dependen de cuánto evitan realmente. Este modelo incorpora que la inmunidad se pierde con el tiempo y que la vacuna protege distinto según el caso sea leve o requiera internación. Para un jubilado o un familiar que cuida a alguien mayor, esto ayuda a entender por qué la vacuna anual sigue siendo la herramienta más concreta para evitar una internación.","quienFirma":"Centros para el Control y la Prevención de Enfermedades (CDC)","confianza":"preprint","consulta":null},"sello":{"hash":"2e3f31cb90b39cdc4ae41789e809b6f07ff7bbaac3ea341d1bc5d281b1afc7dc","sello":"64ea4cbb5b95a1ae6e2b2eaedc710a71b85d7c3468fa2be59721d47eb82f6b17","beacon":{"drand":{"cadena":"8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce","ronda":6587531,"aleatorio":"fe6a0d1e32f33530ee3865ce898a933a679d836c030556cafcf9f7f9e03e9c1f","tiempo":"2026-10-26T23:22:30.000Z"},"nist":{"cadena":2,"pulso":2000959,"salida":"38EFC3652F96D1340187DD7D5B32A840F878CD33000D34F2E88A92400DF1FC86B990B57549F5A1FBF1EAABF05D417E628C2ED1C646A08A636235AA53F1954B2D","tiempo":"2026-10-26T23:22:00.000Z"},"noAntes":"2026-10-26T23:22:30.000Z"},"verificacion":{"drand":true,"nist":true},"tsa":{"time":"Oct 26 23:22:58 2026 GMT","provider":"freetsa.org","sobre":"sello"},"original":{"titulo":"Estimating the Direct Impact of Influenza Vaccination and Vaccine-Averted Illnesses Using an Extended Static Compartmental Model","descripcion":"A previously developed static compartment model informed influenza program decisions by estimating the direct impact of influenza vaccination. To improve the estimation of the burden averted by vaccination, we extended this model to consider multiple influenza seasons, allow natural and vaccine-induced immunity to wane over time allow influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) to differ by hospitalized versus non-hospitalized influenza-associated illness, and measure deaths averted. For model demonstration, we created a synthetic Northern Hemisphere-like and year-round influenza activity dataset spanning four seasons among older adults (>65 years) and assumed VE against symptomatic illness of 37% ","pubDate":"2026-10-26","url":"https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.23.26366241v1?rss=1"},"indexado":"2026-10-26T23:22:05.517Z"}}